In just three days, Gulf countries used around 800 interceptor missiles to counter Iran’s ballistic missile attacks, while Ukraine used about 700 during the entire winter.
Ukraine has been requesting these interceptors for a long time, but as global stockpiles are rapidly depleting, the prospects of receiving them in larger quantities are diminishing. Russia appears to be taking advantage of this situation by launching larger salvos of ballistic missiles against Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine is offering its extensive experience in countering Shahed-type drones to partners in exchange for additional PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors.
In this edition:
Interceptor Missile Shortages in Ukraine;
The War in Ukraine Is Moving Underground;
“Knowledge Is Worth Trillions of Dollars”: Ukraine Is Opening Robotics Exports;
and 10+ additional developments.
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Interceptor Missile Shortages in Ukraine
According to Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defence and Space, Ukraine spent around 700 interceptor missiles for the Patriot system over the three winter months. By comparison, approximately 800 U.S.-made interceptor missiles were used in just three days in the Middle East.
Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that weapons and defence capabilities, including air defence systems needed by Kyiv, are now being redirected to the Middle East.
Ukraine experienced nearly 2,000 missile strikes in 2025 alone, including around 900 ballistic missiles launched by Russia. This highlights that Ukraine’s battlefield needs for interceptors significantly exceed the current production capacity of Western defence industries.
The WSJ reported that Lockheed Martin produced just over 600 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. In operational practice, intercepting a single ballistic missile typically requires at least two Patriot interceptors, and sometimes a third or more if the initial attempt fails.
The production of each interceptor—costing several million dollars—is complex and time-consuming. Manufacturing can take months, as the system relies on components supplied by a wide network of facilities across the United States and from international partners.
To replenish 800 PAC-3, Lockheed Martin would need about 15.5 months of production at its current manufacturing rate, writes Defence Express.
Ukraine’s air force estimates it needs at least 60 PAC-3 interceptors a month just to keep pace with Russian ballistic-missile attacks. Reportedly, Russia is now able to produce around 80 ballistic missiles a month, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence.
The Institute for the Study of War wrote that Russia is likely trying to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptors and take advantage of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7 that resulted in significant civilian casualties in Kharkiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Zirkon hypersonic cruise missiles from occupied Crimea; 13 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles from Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts; and 14 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea.
Russia rarely launches more than 10 ballistic missiles in a single strike package.
As I previously reported in my Drone Warfare in Ukraine newsletter, President Zelensky said that Ukraine is considering providing interceptor drones in exchange for PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for Patriots. On Sunday, March 8, Zelensky said Ukrainian drone-interceptor experts will arrive in the Middle East next week and be ready to provide immediate assistance.
Separately, Reuters reported that before Russia’s massive winter air campaign, Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets didn't have enough AIM-9 “Sidewinder” air-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian drones and missiles for more than three weeks after supplies from Kyiv's partners dried up.
The War in Ukraine Is Moving Underground
Military experts say that the emergence of so-called “kill zones” has become a defining feature of modern warfare. Also, militaries are forced to move underground, especially when the adversary has an advantage in aviation.