All of Ukraine’s current and planned efforts are focused on strengthening deep-strike capabilities — systems designed to transfer the fight onto enemy territory. These capabilities will be top priorities for joint production on partner territory under the Build With Ukraine programme and will be supported by financial assistance from allies.
This edition analyses why, despite official announcements, Ukraine’s indigenous ballistic-missile capability seems to remain out of reach for now. Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up ballistic-missile attacks, and Ukraine urgently needs air-defence systems.
In this edition:
Ukraine’s Defence Exports: What It Might Look Like;
Ukraine Doubles Down on Deep-Strike Capabilities: The Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry (summary of the interview);
Why SAMP/T Might Outperform Patriot;
and 20+ additional developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
Defence Express reports Ukraine was expected to receive a third battery of the SAMP/T air defence system, which had earlier been announced for delivery in October this year. However, it remains unclear whether the system has actually arrived.
The Chief of the French Armed Forces General Staff stated that the SAMP/T system deployed in Ukraine performs even better than the Patriot and demonstrates superior capability in intercepting ballistic missiles.
Ukraine’s SAMP/T units are equipped with Aster 30 Block 0 and Aster 30 Block 1 missiles.
In May, I reported that Iskander ballistic missiles had undergone modernization. Russia likely calculated the capabilities of Patriot’s PAC-3 MSE interceptors and studied the AN/MPQ-53 radar’s search and tracking sectors to map “dead zones,” a process aided by observing radar emissions and post-strike effects, and took more than two years since Patriot arrived in Ukraine.
This may partly account for the reduced interception rate of these missiles by Patriot systems.
France and Italy, however, say that this issue has not affected the SAMP/T’s performance, claiming that the system continues to operate effectively against such threats, which, they argue, makes the SAMP/T superior to the Patriot.
Additional developments:
🇬🇧 The United Kingdom delivered a new batch of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine for striking high-value Russian military targets. Also, the UK Ministry of Defence has officially confirmed the transfer to Ukraine of all 99 AS-90 self-propelled howitzers that remained in service.
🇱🇻 Latvia delivered the final batch of Patria 6×6 armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine as part of its military assistance. The shipment included 21 vehicles, bringing the total number of Patria 6×6 APCs received by Ukraine from the Latvian government to 42 — fulfilling the country’s commitment in full.
🇷🇸 Serbia is willing to sell a large batch of ammunition — including mortar rounds — to the European Union, President Vucic said.
“Europeans can do with it whatever they want,” and “Our warehouses are full; we produce more ammunition than France,” the president emphasized.
Russia demanded an explanation, noting that Serbia had promised Russia many times that its ammunition would not end up in Ukrainian hands.
Earlier reports indicate that Serbian-made ammunition has already been supplied to Ukraine via other European countries.
🇩🇪 Germany plans to increase its financial aid to Ukraine by about 3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) next year. This will cover artillery, drones, armoured vehicles, and the replacement of two Patriot air-defence systems.
🇺🇸 More than $5 billion worth of U.S. weapon exports to support NATO allies and Ukraine have been delayed by the government shutdown, according to a State Department estimate shared with Axios.
Ukraine would like to order 27 Patriot air defense systems from U.S. companies and is looking to borrow the crucial system from its European allies in the meantime, President Zelensky said.
Ukraine’s Defence Exports: What It Might Look Like
Ukraine will open representative offices in Berlin and Copenhagen this year, President Zelensky announced.