For a change, this week’s digest begins with an overview of key developments in US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks. While the Trump administration appears to be pushing for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, it remains unclear what form this process might take, as neither side is willing to accept the other’s conditions. Although Putin is reportedly open to peace, his army continues to terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, even striking the Chornobyl Power Plant with a drone. Clearly, Russia’s vision of peace looks very different from Ukraine’s. Meanwhile, Trump’s aggressive negotiation strategy has had a shock effect on European states, prompting them to increase military support for Ukraine.
Main Developments on the Battlefield and Beyond
Last week, all attention was focused on one major development: discussions about the possibility of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
On February 13, Trump and Putin held their first publicized call since Trump returned to office. In a social media post, Trump stated that the two leaders "agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately" to end the fighting in Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, Trump and Putin spoke for nearly 90 minutes.
After his phone call with Putin, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky, who later commented: “Ukraine wants peace more than anyone else. We are defining our joint steps with America to stop Russian aggression and guarantee a reliable, lasting peace”.
Trump indicated that he could soon meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia but said that no formal decision had been made. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the Trump administration told European officials that it wants to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine by Easter (April 20, 2025).
On February 14, during the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky met with U.S. Vice President Vance. Vance’s speech, which was critical of European governments for retreating from their values and ignoring voter concerns on migration and free speech, was not well received by many attendees of the conference. During his meeting with Vance Zelensky reiterated: “We want, really, we want peace very much. But we need real security guarantees.”
These developments are widely seen as a victory for Vladimir Putin. Kremlin rejected Zelensky's proposal to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for territory held by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast during future peace negotiations.
Throughout the week, Russian forces continued their attacks on Ukraine. Overnight on February 14, Reactor 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant was hit by a Shahed drone. Ukrainian emergency teams extinguished the fire, and assessments indicate that radiation levels remain unchanged.
On February 16, Russian drone strikes damaged a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine, leaving at least 100,000 people without heating as temperatures plunged below freezing.
The continuation of these attacks cannot be seen as a sign of Russia’s readiness for peace with Ukraine.
We all expected Trump to push Ukraine toward negotiations with Russia. Perhaps there was hope that once he became more familiar with the situation or visited Ukraine to witness the scale of destruction firsthand, his stance would shift. That has not happened yet.
Support for Ukraine can take different forms that don’t necessarily involve spending U.S. taxpayer money. One option is transferring Russia’s frozen assets to Ukraine and supporting Ukraine’s defence production. Tightening sanctions against Russia is another. We know Russia is still importing critical Western components for its military equipment—why not tackle that issue?
But other priorities, labeled as "American interests," seem to be taking precedence. It’s unclear what exactly the U.S. administration means by "American interests" and why they are so different from Ukraine’s interests. Russia and China (which is a primary threat according to the Trump administration) are strengthening their cooperation, including in the Arctic (see my latest Russia’s Arms Trends digest), a region of direct American interest. Russia is becoming increasingly militarized and is unlikely to reverse this trend, even if the war in Ukraine is frozen. Encouraged by its successes and the lack of significant pushback, Russia will only escalate its interventions across the globe.
On the other hand, could these developments serve as a wake-up call for European leaders, pushing them toward more independent and responsible action? After all, they are Russia’s direct neighbors and are affected by its aggression in multiple spheres. In the following section, “Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners,” I will highlight several positive developments in this area—so not everything looks that gloomy. The EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, that Europe will continue to support Ukraine if it resists the terms of a peace deal struck between Russia and the US that Kyiv has not agreed to.
Developments on the battlefield:
Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
On February 13, Ukrainian drones destroyed two Valdai radar complexes in Dolgoprudny, Moscow Oblast. Ukrainian drones targeted the Lipetsk water aeration station in Lipetsk City, and the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant, which produces about 20 percent of Russia's steel output.
Ukrainian drones hit the Andreapol oil pumping station in Russia's Tver Oblast for the second time in two weeks overnight on Feb. 13
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery and reportedly struck Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast on the night of February 10 to 11. The Saratov Oil Refinery produces gasoline, diesel fuel, and over 20 types of petroleum products and provides fuel to the Russian military.
On February 10, Ukrainian drones struck Krasnodar City and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai. The refinery has a production capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a vital role in providing fuel to the Russian military.
Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners
Several European countries announced new military assistance packages to Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting on February 12.