Russians are intensifying attacks with their guided aerial bombs, known as KABs, targeting Ukraine’s residential areas far behind the frontline. Russia has moved to medium-scale production of those bombs fitted with new guidance modules, extending their range to roughly 150–200 km. This is a highly concerning development, given that no effective countermeasure currently exists against mass-deployed KABs.
Swedish Gripen jets, which Ukraine has chosen for its air force, are expected to put extra pressure on Russian aviation that launches those KABs. However, their delivery might take some time.
In this edition:
Ukraine Picks the Gripen;
Russian KABs: Old Weapons, New Threats;
10 Years of Ukrainian Defence Tech: summary of the report with infographics on Ukraine’s defence ecosystem;
20+ additional developments in Ukraine and Russia.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
🇸🇪 On October 22, Ukraine’s President and Swedish Prime Minister signed a letter of intent to explore the delivery of up to 150 JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.
The program is designed for 10–15 years, with an estimated cost of around $10 billion. The agreement includes not only the delivery of the aircraft but also the training of Ukrainian pilots and the establishment of a joint technical base for servicing these fighters.
However, it will take about three years before the newly built Gripen E can be delivered to Ukraine. The main challenge, as noted by the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet, is that Ukraine’s long-term need for 100–150 aircraft will be difficult to finance, and funding is becoming a concern for those supporting Ukraine. Some aircraft might be funded using frozen Russian assets.
Why not American F-series fighters? The United States itself is not supplying Ukraine with fighter jets — all F-16s are being provided exclusively by European countries, writes Ukrainian Radio Svoboda. Moreover, Washington has not given any firm guarantees that it would be able to transfer the newest, upgraded, high-tech F-16s in the future.
Sweden, on the other hand, has shown readiness to assist across multiple areas.
Regarding the other platforms, a Ukrainian expert noted that “The Rafale is not the most cost-effective aircraft. It’s one of the most expensive in its class, and not particularly advantageous in terms of efficiency or combat performance. The Eurofighter is also very costly and not widely used. That’s why, in terms of the price-to-quality ratio, the Gripen is the best choice.”
“Working with older F-16s and Mirages is a different matter,” a Ukrainian defence industry executive said to Breaking Defence. “There’s a large base of pilots and technicians familiar with them. They will have to learn how to operate Gripen and how to get the most out of its capabilities. But in the end, Ukraine will possess a dramatically enhanced level of air power — something unprecedented in this part of the world”.
Ukraine expects to receive its first Saab Gripen fighters from Sweden in 2026. Militarnyi wrote that those jets will most likely be in the C/D version.
Another Ukrainian expert, speaking to Ukraine’s Arms Monitor on condition of anonymity, said that in general, any platform without air-to-air missiles offers no advantage in the air. “The task is simple — push the enemy’s aircraft as far as possible from the release lines for KABs.”
Read my recent report: Ukraine’s Aviation Industry: A Potential for Leadership.
Additional developments:
🇫🇷 France will provide Ukraine with additional Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets and Aster air defense missiles in the coming days. Paris will also expand training initiatives for Ukrainian personnel.
🇪🇸 Spain joins PURL, a NATO initiative to buy US weapons for Ukraine.
🇮🇹 Italy has signaled its readiness to finance US-made weapons for Ukraine under the PURL
🇺🇸 Ukraine and the U.S. are finalizing a deal for Kyiv to secure 25 Patriot air defense systems, Zelensky said. “The difficulty lies in the production queue — a line of countries that have signed relevant contracts. We will be receiving these 25 systems over the years, with different quantities each year,” he added.
🇺🇸 The Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies, WSJ reported. Ukraine uses British-made Storm Shadow missiles to conduct more cross-border attacks. Those are launched from Ukrainian aircraft and can travel more than 180 miles. The U.S. can restrict Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow because the missiles use American targeting data.
90 minutes later, President Trump called a report by The Wall Street Journal fake. “The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them!”
Zelensky indicated that Ukraine expects to receive long-range missiles, including Tomahawks, from European countries.
🇬🇧 The U.K. is accelerating the production of over 5,000 lightweight multirole missiles to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence during the winter period.
Russian KABs: Old Weapon, New Threat
Russia started using glide bombs, known as KABs, to hit Ukraine’s residential areas deep behind the front line. The new KABs equipped with a small jet engine have been detected over Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Poltava regions.