Ukraine demonstrated impressive results on the battlefield by downing not one but two Russian combat aircraft using its well-known Magura naval drones, marking the first time fighter aircraft have been downed by drone boats.
The signing of the critical minerals agreement, after a long and difficult negotiation process between the U.S. and Ukraine, helped pave the way for continued U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine, though in a different form than during the Biden administration.
Despite these important achievements, the security situation in Ukraine’s large cities, particularly Kyiv, appears to be worsening.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
Last week, the minerals deal agreement between the US and Ukraine was finally signed. Contrary to earlier concerns, the final agreement is not particularly disadvantageous for Ukraine. At the same time, according to estimates, it will take at least a decade for both countries to start generating revenue from this agreement, due to the ongoing war, the need for updated resource mapping, and other preparatory work.
The most immediate positive effect of this agreement is the unblocking of American military equipment flows, an urgently needed development given the worsening security situation and the increasing Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
On May 1st, the White House approved its first $50 million arms exports to Ukraine through direct commercial sales to Kyiv. The $50 million sale license notice was submitted to Congress via the Arms Export Control Act.
Direct Commercial Sales is quite different from another mechanism for selling weapons, which is much more widely known - Foreign Military Sales (FMS). Foreign Military Sales (FMS) operate through an intergovernmental arrangement in which the U.S. government acts as an intermediary, selling American weapons to the purchasing country. Direct Commercial Sales entail a direct contract between the defense manufacturer and the purchasing party. This mechanism is often considerably faster than the Foreign Military Sales process. The Defense Express notes that not all weapons can be sold through the DCS mechanism.
Previously, through this mechanism, Ukraine purchased fire control equipment, laser equipment, imaging and guidance equipment, personal protective equipment, and ammunition.
On May 2, the U.S. State Department approved up to $310.5 million in F-16 training and support services for Ukraine. The War Zone reported that non-operational F-16s are being pulled from the boneyard and sent to Ukraine. These disused and completely non-operational aircraft are being provided to Ukraine for spare parts. On May 4, The New York Times reported that a Patriot air-defense system previously stationed in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after undergoing refurbishment.
For the context: following a quarrel at the White House between President Trump and President Zelensky, the U.S. halted military transfers and intelligence sharing with Ukraine in March. Read here about how the events unfolded and what they meant for Ukraine.
Additional developments:
Australia's promised donation of second-hand American-made tanks M1A1 to Ukraine has stalled, with the aging vehicles yet to leave the country. Military figures have privately suggested that resistance from the United States is partly to blame for the delay. The M1A1 export process remains ongoing.
The Czech ammunition initiative will deliver up to 1.8 million artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of 2025. The announcement represents an additional 300,000 shells committed to Kyiv over what was announced by Prague earlier this year. The country is already working on organizing the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine for 2026, as it does not expect peace to be achieved this year.
According to President Zelensky, Ukraine expects to receive three million artillery shells from partners this year.
Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to establish a training center for F-16 fighter jets pilots. Ukrainian pilots are currently training at a center in Romania.
Latvia transferred a new batch of strike drones to Ukraine as part of the international Drone Coalition. The batch includes 1,500 strike drones. These are part of the 12,000 drones that two Latvian companies will produce in the first half of the year to support the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Ukrainian defense forces are actively deploying BEAK bomber drones, developed by the Latvian company Origin Robotics. The BEAK drone can strike enemy targets at distances of up to 15 kilometers and is resistant to electronic warfare interference. The drone has a maximum takeoff weight of 11 kilograms and can carry up to three munitions with a combined payload of up to 4 kilograms. BEAK drones were field-tested by Ukraine’s 414th Brigade, known as “Madyar’s Birds,” and carried out 69 combat sorties before the first unit was lost.
The casualties among the Caesar wheeled self-propelled artillery systems operated by Ukraine currently stand at 10% of all units in service. Defense Express calculated that the irreversible losses of Caesar systems should amount to about 7 artillery pieces since 2022. For a comparison between the French Caesar and Ukrainian Bohdana howitzers, check one of my newsletter issues here.
In 2025, France plans to produce 1,200 AASM Hammer air bombs for Ukraine—nearly twice as many as in 2024. French defense company Safran has successfully adapted AASM Hammer guided bomb kits for use on Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-25 aircraft in under four months, marking a significant step in Western efforts to modernize Ukraine’s Soviet-era air fleet. The AASM Hammer is a modular guidance kit that converts standard unguided bombs into precision air-to-ground weapons.
The United Kingdom transferred all of its AS-90 self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine, thereby ending their service in the British Army.
Domestic Defense Production and Internal Affairs
Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation has launched Brave1 Market—the first defense technology marketplace in Ukraine, operating on a model similar to eBay.