This weekend, I invite you to explore Russia’s naval ambitions. In its effort to maintain its “great imperial status,” Russia continues to showcase impressive projects, such as the refurbished nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov. While its deployment has been repeatedly delayed, it will be interesting to see whether it follows the comedic fate of Admiral Kuznetsov.
Over the past week, several insightful assessments of Russia’s military presence in Africa have emerged. To provide a clearer picture of Moscow’s current priorities in the region, I have summarized some of the key findings.
Meanwhile, partnerships with North Korea and Iran remain a crucial topic of analysis, as these alliances significantly strengthen the military capabilities of the parties involved.
Enjoy your weekend and my latest publication! If you find my newsletter useful for your work, I’d love to hear from you!
Russia’s Modernized Nuclear Battlecruiser Finally Powers Up Its Reactors: Report (Thomas Newdick for The Warzone).
Russian state media stated that the 28,000-ton battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov now has both of its nuclear reactors online, claiming that the warship should return to sea for trials starting this summer. Its service return has been delayed multiple times in the past.
Russia has already invested the equivalent of $5 billion into this cruiser, which is intended to be equipped with launchers for up to 80 missiles. However, the Admiral Nakhimov is still no closer to returning to active service with the Russian Navy, with its reactivation already postponed until 2026.
First launched in 1986, the Admiral Nakhimov is part of the class of warships known in Russia as Project 11442, which is codenamed Kirov class by NATO.
Currently, the Russian Navy operates a single Kirov class battlecruiser, the Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great), which serves with the Northern Fleet having undergone only minor modernization. It still relies primarily on its Soviet-era weapons and sensors.
For years, the Admiral Nakhimov was in a dry dock undergoing a deep refit, with the original promise being that the warship would eventually emerge as basically new, with a whole range of new weapons and sensors. Previous images have shown huge portions of the warship entirely gutted, with the expectation that they will accommodate new weapons and sensors.
Originally, the refit was set to provide the Admiral Nakhimov with no fewer than 174 vertical launch tubes — which would provide it with more than any other surface combatant or submarine in the world. Plans called for 80 of these tubes to accommodate various modern Russian cruise missiles, including the subsonic Kalibr, the supersonic Oniks, and supposedly the hypersonic Zircon.
Other reports in the past have suggested that missiles from the land-based S-400 air defense system may be incorporated, as a further evolution of the S-300FM, which would provide a more robust anti-ballistic missile capability.
The Kirov class represents the last nuclear-powered surface combatant in service anywhere in the world, with the U.S. Navy having retired the last of its nuclear-powered cruisers in the 1990s, primarily on cost grounds.
In the final paragraph of this article, the author says the following: “this impressive warship will be a very significant symbol of Russian naval power”. While the developments surrounding this battlecruiser will be interesting to watch, this statement is debatable given Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s navy and other military infrastructure, and Russia's declining naval power.
In September 2024, it was reported by Forbes, that the Kremlin reassigned the sailors of the Admiral Kuznetsov ship (the only aircraft carrier) to the army—and sent them into battle in Ukraine. Kuznetsov has completed just seven patrols since launching in 1985. During the flattop’s most recent deployment, off the coast of Syria in 2016, the air wing lost two of its 24 jets to accidents in the span of just three weeks. Two years later in October 2018, Kuznetsov suffered serious damage when the drydock PD-50 sank while the carrier was aboard for repairs. Then, in December 2019, a fire broke out on Kuznetsov itself.
Fleet leaders considered decommissioning the damaged ship. The Kremlin opted to repair and modernize Kuznetsov, instead. The plan, at the time, was for Kuznetsov to return to sea in 2022. But another fire broke out in December 2022. Nearly two years later, the carrier is still stuck in Murmansk port.
The publication in The Warzone was critiqued by Ukraine’s Defense Express, which recalled the story of the Russian nuclear destroyer project Lider, which has remained only on paper. In 2020, Defense Express published an analysis of this project, arguing that such naval initiatives are intended to preserve Russia’s so-called "great imperial status," which is unimaginable without a powerful fleet capable of operating worldwide. However, Russia’s current naval capabilities rely mainly on a limited number of aging Soviet-era ships, whose operational lifespan is rapidly coming to an end.
Earlier last week, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian naval drone strikes have likely forced Russia to significantly change the routes of its ships traveling between Russia and Syria. According to the Ukrainian Resistance Center, Russian vessels stopped using the Black Sea for this route in the spring of 2024, likely due to the threat posed by Ukrainian naval drones. Instead, Russian ships reportedly began traveling from ports in the Baltic Sea to Syria via the Atlantic Ocean, despite this route being several times longer than the Black Sea passage.
Ukraine sees marked improvement in accuracy of Russia's North Korean missiles (Tom Balmforth for Reuters).
According to sources in the Ukrainian military, North Korean ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine by Russian forces since late December have demonstrated significantly greater accuracy than previous launches over the past year. Earlier in the war, these missiles had an accuracy of 1-3 kilometers, but recent strikes have shown precision within 50 to 100 meters. This improvement suggests that North Korea is using the battlefield as a testing ground to refine its missile technology.
By manufacturing missiles and receiving feedback from their primary customer—the Russian military—North Korea is gaining valuable experience in producing more reliable weapons.
The advancements in North Korean missile accuracy raise serious concerns about the country's growing ability to threaten South Korea, Japan, and the United States, as well as its potential to export enhanced weapons to unstable states or armed groups.
Experts suggest two main reasons for the increased precision: the missiles may now be equipped with improved navigation systems or maneuvering mechanisms. Additional contributing factors could include better targeting data for launch crews, new guidance system components supplied by Russia, and refinements made using battlefield data collected by North Korean scientists.
Russia began launching North Korean K-23, K-23A, and K-24 short-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine in late 2023 and has since fired approximately 100. Kyiv also reports that Russia has received millions of artillery shells and thousands of troops from Pyongyang to support its war effort.
Although North Korean ballistic missiles make up only a small fraction of Russia’s overall missile strikes, they carry a substantial warhead of up to one tonne and can reach distances of up to 800 km. In contrast, Russia’s Iskander-M missile, a comparable system, has a smaller payload and a shorter range of 500 km.
Additional development related to the North-Korean involvement: President Zelenskyi informed that the North Korean military has resumed combat operations in Russia’s Kursk oblast after previously pausing their active involvement in assaults against Ukrainian forces.
After the Fall. Russian Influence on Africa’s Illicit Economies Post-Wagner (Report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime).
The Wagner Group, had built up operations in several African countries over the preceding decade by providing mercenary troops, conducting political influence campaigns and by establishing a network of companies in the extractives sector. After the death of its leader Prigozhin in July 2023, Moscow acted quickly by sending high-level officials to several countries to reassure Wagner’s former clients that support would continue uninterrupted.
Russia’s current strategy in the region consists of four thematic strands: rebranding, maintenance, expansion, and diversification.
The establishment of the Africa Corps, under the direct supervision of Russia’s military intelligence service (GRU), was the most pertinent to Wagner’s Africa operations. Its creation signaled an ambitious stepping up of Russia’s footprint on the ground, even though the Africa Corps has struggled to generate momentum, with recruitment targets being revised downwards and personnel transferred to Russia.
Some other aspects of Wagner’s operations have also continued under new titles. For example, the African Initiative in Burkina Faso, which disseminates pro-Russian messaging in the region, is in many ways another iteration of Wagner’s media and political influence work, and includes several former Wagner or Wagner-linked staff.
Maintenance of Wagner as an entity – at least in name – has been a key consideration in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), where the brand is strong due to entrenched involvement in economic activities and security services. However, this continuity may also mask how much has changed behind the scenes: while Wagner ‘lives’ in the CAR and Mali, it is now much more tightly under Moscow’s control.
The new opportunities for intervention emerged for Russia in 2023–2024. This has led to expansion into several countries in West Africa – Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger – where governments have sought to explore economic and security alternatives to their long-standing Western partners, particularly France.
Finally, there has been a diversification of actors in the post-Prigozhin period, from the abovementioned Africa Corps to other Russian PMCs, such as Redut and Convoy. Unlike Wagner under Prigozhin, these PMCs are tightly controlled by the Kremlin; they are all required to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence (MoD), which Prigozhin resisted.
In their article Recalibration or Retreat? Russia's shifting Africa strategy for Responsible Statecraft, John Lechner and Sergey Eledinov mention the fact that some analysts believe Russia’s influence and ability to project power in the Sahel is waning, or that the Kremlin no longer considers the Sahel and other friendly states in Africa a priority. Indeed, there are members of Russia’s military, political, and expert communities pushing to scale back Moscow’s presence on the continent or to use Africa as a bargaining chip in any potential negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Authors of this article argue that a retreat from the Sahel, and Africa more generally, still appears unlikely. Claiming a leadership position within the Global South remains an important priority to the Kremlin. The Sahel and Africa more broadly also offer a platform for strengthening Russia’s cooperation with China and Turkey.
Other news:
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has acknowledged that Russia still retains the capacity to produce nearly all types of weaponry. At the start of its full-scale invasion, Russia had over 1,300 defense industry facilities employing nearly two million workers—forming a powerful mechanism to sustain the war effort.
However, Russia's military-industrial enterprises currently face a shortage of hundreds of thousands of skilled workers due to a significant scaling-up of arms production. Certain types of weaponry are now being manufactured at three to six times the previous rate, and Russia remains the leading producer of Soviet-caliber artillery shells.
Russia's defense industry is unable to fully meet battlefield demands, forcing the Kremlin to seek support from North Korea and Iran.
Russia has announced that a US-made armored personnel carrier captured from Ukraine’s forces will be integrated into its military arsenal to support a variety of missions. It is an M113 fully-tracked personnel carrier, a widely-used armored vehicle in the ongoing war due to large-scale deliveries from Western allies. Reports suggest that Moscow might be overestimating the value of its war trophies, potentially exaggerating their strategic significance. The M113 captured from Ukrainian forces is believed to be over 70 years old, with its design dating back to the Vietnam War era. The US military has already replaced these vehicles with next-generation models like the Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle from BAE Systems.
Russia’s Uralvagonzavod has produced the first T-90M Proryv tank with the Arena-M active protection system, capable of intercepting guided missiles and other threats. The Arena-M system is designed to intercept missiles and other anti-tank munitions in the near area around it by physically destroying them. It consists of radars that monitor the area around the tank. After successfully detecting a threat, the system fires a munition that hits it with a narrowly focused stream of heavy fragments.
Russia has announced the Kub-2 drone, claiming it incorporates Switchblade technology, but in reality, it is merely an improved version of its predecessor - Ukrainian experts claim. The drone's upgrades are aimed at developing a low-cost alternative to the Lancet drone, reducing production expenses. At the same time, it is too early to assess the effectiveness of this drone.
After Ukraine's Defense Forces successfully deployed kamikaze surface boats in the Black Sea, Russia's defense industry began developing its own versions. In 2023, the Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant (KMZ) introduced the GRK-700 "Vizir", initially presented as a platform for hydrographic tasks. However, the design concealed its potential for military applications. It became known that Russia would receive serial GRK-700 Vizyr kamikaze boats in 2024. It is noted that the Vizir can move at a speed of about 85 km/h. It is equipped with electronic warfare and can perform tasks in the riverbeds. Russians say that such a boat could be used on the Dnipro river to destroy crossings. The Vizir can also be used to counter Ukrainian kamikaze boats. Large-caliber machine guns, missiles, or even anti-drone nets are considered the main weapons against them.
Russia has developed a 7.62 mm round to combat drones. Reportedly, Russian private organizations have begun production of 7.62 x 39 caliber ammunition for assault rifles, with bullets printed on a 3D printer.
Russian officials are investigating a plot that allegedly sent explosive-laden first-person view (FPV) goggles to drone units in the hope they would detonate, killing or injuring the operator. It mirrors the mass attack Israel carried out against Hezbollah last September using thousands of explosive-packed pagers and walkie-talkies.
According to Ukraine, Russia is forming unmanned systems forces and plans to recruit up to 210,000 personnel for the new branch by 2030.
A Russian state-run poll suggests that the Russian public maintains a high level of support for the war in Ukraine despite mounting challenges. 67 percent of the people polled support Russia’s war in Ukraine and 65 percent believe that the war is "going well" for Russia.
Azerbaijani experts have recovered a fragment of a Russian Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile from the wreckage of the downed Embraer ERJ-190 passenger plane.
Azerbaijan-Russia relations continue to sour following Russia’s refusal to take full responsibility for the December 25, 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane - ISW. Azerbaijani outlet APA News, reported that Azerbaijan is preparing to take legal action against Russia in an international court, citing recent clear evidence identifying unspecified Russian actors responsible for the crash and Russia's failure to take responsibility for the crash.
Russia announced the destruction of a Ukrainian naval drone by a guided missile launched by an Orion reconnaissance and strike drone. The drone, which was immobilized under unknown circumstances, was hit in the Black Sea by a Kh-BPLA laser-guided missile.
The Russian army command has begun withdrawing individual anti-aircraft missile units from occupied Crimea and redeploying them deep into Russia, according to the Atesh guerrilla movement.
Syria's new government will decide the fate of Russian military bases based on national interests, the Syrian Defense Minister told The Washington Post. Russia's ability to retain its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim will depend on what Moscow offers in return.