During Christmas week, Russia launched a massive barrage of missiles and drones against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, plunging millions of civilians into darkness. The tragic crash of the Azerbaijani plane, caused by Russia’s electronic warfare and air defense, proves the point that while Russia remains powerful and unrestrained, there is no peaceful corner—not only in Eastern Europe but in the entire world.
Military transfers to Ukraine:
Latvia will transfer over 1,000 "combat drones of various types" to Ukraine through the international drone coalition.
On December 23, Germany updated the list of military aid to Ukraine with: 15 Leopard 1 A5 tanks; two Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems; 30 MRAP armoured vehicles with mine protection; PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer; 12 armoured vehicles with kinetic defence systems; two TRML-4D radars; AIM-9L/I-1 Sidewinder guided missiles; ammunition for Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks; 120 GMW grenade launchers; 52,000 155-mm shells; 65,000 rounds of ammunition for Gepard systems; 30 Vector drones, 24 RQ-35 Heidrun drones, and 14 Hornet XR drones; 5 AMPS helicopter self-defence systems; 45 diving scooters; 12 Zetros lorries and 8 Zetros fuel tankers.
Greece plans to deliver 24 Sea Sparrow missiles to Ukraine, media reports. Sea Sparrows are U.S.-made short-range missiles that can be launched from the sea or ground to intercept cruise missiles or aircraft.
NATO officially activated its Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) program. The organization will coordinate the provision, transfer, and repair of military equipment critical to Ukraine’s operations, as well as training in Allied countries to bolster Ukraine’s military effectiveness. These tasks will be synchronized with efforts to develop Ukraine’s future military force, in order to achieve full interoperability with NATO and align with NATO standards.
Ukraine's stockpiles of U.S.-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) are running low, the NYT reported.
Military cooperation projects with partners:
Ukraine secured over $156 million for the defense industry from its European allies (Denmark, France, and Lithuania), the defense minister said.
Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:
Ukrainian-made drones account for 96% of all UAVs used by Ukraine's Defence Forces.
Ukrainian drones can hit targets 2,000 km away, Ukraine's military intelligence claims.
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers on Dec. 24 approved a resolution to simplify the procurement of domestically produced drones and electronic warfare (EW) equipment. The changes will allow commanders of military units to procure tactical-level drones and EW systems without unnecessary bureaucratic approvals from the General Staff or other military management bodies.
Ukrainian volunteers are developing a more powerful model of Trembita missile capable of reaching Moscow. The Trembita is significantly cheaper than Western or Russian missiles and operates like the V1 flying bombs used in World War II.
Ukrainian-made Shchedryk unmanned aerial vehicle was approved for military use, the Defense Ministry announced on Dec. 25. It has increased resistance to electronic warfare and can be tasked with monitoring the actions of Russian troops on the battlefield.
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine codified and allowed Ukrainian forces to use the Ravlyk (Snail) robotic platform.
Ukraine's Magura V5 maritime kamikaze drone has successfully destroyed or damaged 15 Russian naval vessels. This landmark achievement marks a significant turning point in naval warfare, demonstrating the transformative potential of unmanned systems in reshaping military dynamics.
Russia and its allies:
The Azerbaijani Airlines plane that crashed on Dec. 25 en route to Russia reportedly was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile. The missile likely was launched from a “Pantsir-S” air defense system during drone activity over Grozny (Chechnya). An Azerbaijan Airlines plane was rendered "uncontrollable" by electronic warfare and damaged by fire from the ground while flying over Russia before crashing - the Azerbaijani President said. At least 38 passengers were killed. Putin apologized to Azerbaijan's leader for what the Kremlin called a "tragic incident".
Russia's new experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile, "Oreshnik," which was launched against Ukraine last month, was produced using advanced Western manufacturing equipment, according to an investigation by the FT. This case demonstrates Russia's reliance on Western components in the realm of computer numerical control (CNC) technology.
President Lukashenko seeks to deploy 10 Russian Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus.
Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024-2025 strike campaign against Ukraine. The plant at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, in Russia’s southern Tatarstan region, has significantly scaled up its production of Iranian-designed attack and surveillance drones, using a range of Chinese components, and recruiting a very young, low-skilled workforce of Russian teenagers and African women, according to CNN analysis. It's estimated that this drone production facility produced 5,760 drones between January and September 2024 — more than twice the number of drones that the facility produced in 2023.
Increased Russian armored vehicle losses over the last year, particularly among Russian units and formations that have been engaged in frontline combat for most of 2024, may be impacting Russia's rate of advance in certain sectors of the frontline - ISW. According to reports, Russian forces have 47 percent of their pre-war tank reserves, 52 percent of pre-war infantry fighting vehicle reserves, and 45 percent of pre-war armored personnel carrier reserves remaining in storage as of a recent unspecified date.
Satellite imagery suggests North Korea is going to supply more arms to Russia, WSJ reported. Seoul officials told WSJ that approximately 200 munitions factories in North Korea are running at full capacity to produce weapons, with Russia providing fuel and equipment to assist Pyongyang's arms production efforts.
North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast endure heavy losses, logistical struggles, Ukraine's intelligence (HUR) says. Over 3,000 North Korean troops were killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast.
Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond sabotage of European infrastructure, potentially resorting to provocations on NATO’s borders - Ukraine says.
As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, production at Russian oil refineries fell to a 12-year low.
Russia will abandon its moratorium on deploying short- and medium-range missiles, Foreign Minister Lavrov said, citing the US's decision to deploy such weapons across the world.
A Kh-101 missile fired by Russia spent about 2 hours in Moldovan and Romania airspace before landing in a field in Ukraine.
Major developments:
Russia launched a major Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system, using more than 70 missiles, including ballistic missiles, and more than a hundred attack drones.
Russia attacked Ukraine with over 280 bombs, 370 drones, 80 missiles this week.
Ukraine risks losing all Russian land it seized within months, U.S. says.
On Dec.28, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Shahed drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility in Oryol City, Oryol Oblast.
Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Rostov Oblast, Ukraine claimed on Dec.25.
Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian-seized ship in Crimea. This vessel, built in 2010, was seized by Russia from Ukraine during the 2014 annexation of Crimea but has remained largely unused in recent years.
Ukrainian long-range drones have likely struck the maintenance and operations facility of a Russian military airfield Millerovo where fighter jets were undergoing repairs.
Other news:
Readiness to support Ukraine “until it wins” has fallen sharply across Western Europe. December polling by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found public desire to stand by Ukraine until victory – even if that meant prolonging the war – had slumped in all seven countries over the past 12 months.
EU to produce 2 million artillery shells in 2025.
About 73% of Ukrainians supported the idea of Ukraine restoring its nuclear weapons, according to a poll.
Opinion and analysis:
How Ukraine’s new drone-missile hybrids are changing long-range weapon technology (Kollen Post for The Kyiv Independent). Ukraine has turbo-charged its long-distance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), making “rocket-drones” to compete with cruise missiles or save the trouble of asking for more Western-made ranged weapons.
Ukraine’s ‘Winchester’ Drone Fires Dual Shotguns At Russian Drones (David Axe for Forbes). More and more, the Ukrainians are going after Russian drones with drones of their own. We’ve seen Ukrainian drones ram Russian drones in mid-air—or drop nets on them from above. The latest counter-drone innovation might be the most impressive: “the Ukrainian drone has now two shotguns". The dual shotgun armament seems to be a new development.
Inside Ukraine’s secret missile programme (The Economist. Behind a paywall). It is uncertain how long Ukraine can count on massive foreign military aid. Hence the Trembita, which is one of several missile projects the country hopes will ignite a resurgence in its domestic industry. The most prominent projects are the Neptune, a long-range cruise missile adapted from the anti-ship weapon that sank Russia’s flagship, the Moskva, in 2022, and the Hrim-2 (also known as Sapsan), a tactical ballistic missile under development at the Pivdenmash plant. Both missiles are state-backed, relatively expensive, and have been slow off the ground. Industry insiders say they see more promise in the newer start-ups.
The role of partner nations in strengthening Ukraine's Defence Forces through Capability Coalitions – Ministry of Defence overview. The needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in terms of weapons, military equipment, and personnel training are categorized into 8 Coalition domains: the Air Force Capability Coalition; the Maritime Capability Coalition; the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Coalition; the Artillery Coalition; the Armored Vehicles and Maneuverability Coalition; the Drone Coalition; the Demining Capability Coalition; the IT Coalition. The ultimate goal of all Coalitions is to contribute to developing the future structure of the Defence Forces and equip them with Western equipment and weaponry.